CurrentReport Blog The methodology of a recent Insider Advantage poll for Fox 5 Atlanta has come under scrutiny. The poll indicates that former President Donald Trump is leading by over three points against President Joe Biden in Georgia, following an assassination attempt on Trump.
Poll Results and Methodology
The survey, conducted on July 15 and 16, asked likely voters, “If the election were held today, for whom would you vote for president?” The results were as follows:
- Donald Trump: 47.2%
- Joe Biden: 44%
- Another candidate: 4.8%
- Undecided: 4%
Nevertheless, the poll’s sample size and demographics have generated substantial apprehension. The survey encompassed a total of 800 individuals who are highly inclined to vote, with only 17 participants identifying as African American, in contrast to 638 participants who identified as white. This is especially significant considering the fact that, based on the 2020 census figures, African Americans accounted for 31% of Georgia’s population.
Effect of Incident on Poll
The survey was carried very soon after a significant event on July 13th, in which Trump suffered a bleeding right ear as a result of an assault by a 20-year-old gunman named Thomas Crooks, who was positioned on a rooftop at a rally near Butler, Pennsylvania. The attack led to the fatality of one participant in the rally and severe injuries to two others prior to the assailant being fatally shot.
Population characteristics and degree of uncertainty
The Insider Advantage poll has a 4.1% margin of error. The demographics of the respondents are as follows:
- White voters: 638
- Hispanic voters: 49
- African American voters: 17
- Other races: 96
- Men: 380
- Women: 420
- Republicans: 336
- Democrats: 264
- Independent voters: 200
Concerns and Criticism
The significant underrepresentation of African American voters in the sample has sparked criticism and questions about the reliability and accuracy of the poll results. Given Georgia’s diverse demographic makeup, many argue that a more representative sample is crucial for accurate polling.
